Audit ledger

What we publish is structural: patterns observed in volatility, trend strength, and momentum across multiple asset classes. We do not publish directional advice and we do not tell anyone to buy or sell anything. The observations describe what the market is doing; the reader decides whether and how that matters to their book.

Outcomes are graded against the twenty-four hours that follow publication, and we report two distinct measures that must never be confused. The first is structural move detection: of the reads that flag a structural move, the share where a material move actually followed, in either direction. The second is directional accuracy: on the minority of calls that carry a side, the share that moved the way the reading implied. They are different kinds of claim and do not share a scoreboard.

The directional figure sits close to even, and we state it plainly rather than dress it up: Quorum Index detects where structure is moving, it does not call which way. That is the honest shape of the product. We deliberately do not publish an expected-value or realized-return figure. The realized hold-to-close edge of the directional calls is, candidly, around zero, and any larger number would have to be built on best-case intra-window excursions we could never actually capture. We would rather show you the real shape than sell you an optimistic one.

What is not in the ledger: nothing. We do not retroactively exclude losing signals, we do not re-grade older entries when methodology improves, and we do not hide events that printed against us. When a methodology revision ships, older entries remain graded under their original version, the version is recorded with the entry, and the change is noted. The number on this page moves with the system, not with our preferences.