What we measure, and how we grade it.
Quorum Index scans market structure across asset classes and grades every observation against what the market prints next. This is the approach at a high level. The full whitepaper sits one link down, for anyone who wants the rigor.
Detect, stamp, grade.
The scanner watches market structure continuously and flags measurable deviations — score spikes and clusters, score drops, volatility shifts, regime transitions. The moment one fires, the state around it is stamped to an append-only log: the regime, the volatility percentile, the expectation. That record is frozen before any forward price is known, so nothing can be quietly revised to flatter the result.
Each observation is then graded against what actually happened, at one hour, four hours, and twenty-four hours. Wins, losses, and inconclusive outcomes are all written down. There is no look-ahead and no re-grading of old entries when the method improves; when it changes, the old entries keep their original grade and the change is recorded.
Two measures, never merged.
Quorum Index measures two different things. Reporting them as one number is exactly how a headline “win rate” can climb into the low-60s and mislead. Kept apart, they tell the truth.
Of the reads that flag a structural move, the share where a material move actually followed within 24 hours — in either direction. This is the useful thing the system does: it flags when structure is moving. We report it as a follow-through rate, never as a win rate, and we make no claim that it beats a random-timing baseline by any particular margin.
On the calls that carry a genuine side, the share that moved the expected way. A coin flip, stated plainly. Quorum Index detects where structure is moving; it does not call which way, and we report that rather than dress it up. The record does show one real pocket of downside information — sharp score drops resolve lower about 64% of the time — which the whitepaper sets out in full.
Graded in public.
Every observation is timestamped at publication and graded against what the market printed, losses included, nothing curated out. The complete record is served live, with no account needed, and you can verify any row before you pay anything. Transparency is the product here, not a performance number — the open, graded ledger is what makes the rest of the record worth trusting.
What we do not claim.
Quorum Index is a structural input layer, not a strategy and not a direction oracle. We publish no expected-value, risk/reward, or realised-edge figure. An earlier version of our whitepaper did claim a positive expected value, derived from the asymmetry between the best and worst points price reached inside a window; version 1.2 retracts that claim, because those extremes are not values anyone can actually capture, and at the close — with direction a coin flip — the realised edge is approximately zero. We would rather show you the real shape than sell you an optimistic one.